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FALL FREE DINING MEANS SLIGHTLY LONGER LINES–BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MATTER

Every year shortly after the traditional fall free dining offer comes out, I start getting questions like Katie’s about whether free dining will make the parks more crowded than my forecasts.

The short answer is “no.” Free Dining this period has been happening forever, and is thus already built into the crowd forecasts.

The longer answer is a little more complicated, but still mostly no:

• Yes, free dining increases crowds more than they otherwise would have been (though, as noted, this is already reflected in the crowd calendars). But not much. If Disney sells 30% more of its hotel capacity because of free dining, that’s on the order of 30,000 more people in the hotels per night.  But divide this across four theme parks, the water parks, Downtown Disney, Universal, SeaWorld, and off days, and it’s a drop in the bucket!  And, to boldly repeat myself, this is already reflected in the crowd calendar.
• Because the free dining periods is shorter this year, it may have slightly more of a crowding effect in September 2013, as people who can do so–most can’t–move trips from the later August periods traditionally offered into September.  The effect of this is naturally capped by both the limited number of WDW hotel rooms, and resistance to taking kids out of school their first month back. Moreover, savvy travelers avoid going to Florida during the peak of the hurricane season–which (along with September being a tough time to take kids out of school) is exactly why Disney offers this deal!
• September crowds have been going up bit by bit for years now, principally because of growth in South American visitors on their “spring break” (recall that the seasons in South America are upside down). This actually has more of an impact than free dining, but it’s still small.
• Finally, because of the kick-off of Mickey’s Not-So-Halloween Party September 10, 2013 which days you go to the Magic Kingdom will really effect the level of crowds there.  See this.

Now when people like me talk about “crowds” we really mean “wait times.”

You may well see larger crowds in the streetscapes of the parks (you have larger street crowds during low-wait times, as not as many guest are in the lines!), and because of free dining, all the more fun restaurants will be booked solid.

But the wait times for rides will still be low compared to other times of the year. 

Now if you roll in at 11.30a, wait times will be high–as they always are by late morning.  Common sense and a good itinerary are still required. But wait times will still be much better than the equivalent times during the more crowded times of the year!