Three Things You Need to Know About Free Dining

Last week I saw a somewhat comic set of posts flying by on Facebook—I’m not gonna link to the posts because their author is otherwise often reliable, and I’ve been known to write rather knuckleheaded stuff myself…so I won’t throw stones!

They were related to the prospect of free dining dates for later 2013 being released next week, and included the following (paraphrased) claims:

• “If you haven’t booked a trip and want free dining, book your room and then your dining now and then call to have free dining applied to your package”
• “People traveling after December should not expect to see free dining. It’s only happened once”
• “People staying in deluxes often/usually save more by using a room-only discount instead of free dining”

The first point is foolish, and the second two mostly wrong, so I thought I’d better post on the three things you need to know about free dining in 2013 after September!

3 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT FREE DINING

1. Forecasts are forecasts, not facts, and are sometimes wrong—either because the info they were based on was wrong, over-interpreted, or misunderstood, or because things just change.

One of the ways things just change is that the capacity meant to be allocated to a deal—either in the restaurants or in the Disney World hotels—gets booked up.  So don’t book your dates now unless you are committed to those weeks whether or not free dining shows up!

The more people who book those dates in the restaurants and hotels before the deal, the more likely those dates will come off the free dining list!  That’s what I suspect happened to early December—which was eligible on the free dining pin codes, but is not part of the current rumored dates…

“But we’re targeting a low-crowd week,” you protest. Doesn’t matter.

Hotel occupancy rates are not crowd calendars–the Disney hotels routinely sell out in low-crowd periods, if both prices are seasonally low (as they are for most of the rumored arrival dates for the free dining deal) and also a deal is offered on top of these low prices.  That’s why they offer the deals…

So don’t book now…or we may lose those dates/resorts to free dining! Rather, get on the phone at 7a the day the deal comes out…

2. Don’t read too much into past patterns of discounts that have been shaped in response to the recession, especially if you read the past patterns wrong!

Disney’s discounting behavior changes in response to a changed environment… which is why there were no August weeks in this year’s hurricane season free dining.

Disney has done January-March free dining not, as claimed in the Facebook stream, once, but rather twice in the past few years (see this), but did not offer it in 2013.

This makes it less likely that Disney will offer free dining in early 2014—but not certain that it won’t!

3. If you plan to get the dining plan deal or no deal, room rate discounts at the deluxes will be a better deal than free dining not “often/usually” but rather sometimes, based on specific family and hotel circumstances.

You have to do the math, as your party size, ages, and the cost of your room are key variables that will drive which is better for you.

For example, standard rooms at the Polynesian, this site’s top-ranked deluxe and one of the three most expensive hotels at Walt Disney World, during the fall season are $501 per night on weekdays and $564 on weekends.  A five night trip with two weekend nights would average $526.20 per night, and a 35% off room-only discount would then average $184.17.

At $58.66 per person ten or older as the cost of the dining plan, if there’s just two people in the Polynesian room ten or older, the room rate deal is better–even if there’s three kids younger than ten.  But a family with three people ten or older and just one more kid will do better with the dining plan.

A five person family, with two kids ten or older, and one younger, would save almost $70/night by taking free dining…

The differences are starker at the less expensive deluxes. At the Wilderness Lodge, this site’s second mostly highly rated deluxe, and Disney World’s cheapest, nightly savings from the room only deal would be $131.81 (again at 35% off a standard room over the fall season, for a five night stay including two weekend nights).

Just two people 10 or older plus one younger kid would save more with free dining. Two parents, one kid ten or older, and one younger, would save on the order of $60 per night on free dining as opposed to the room rate deal.

A few years ago—when we routinely saw deluxe discounts of 40%, and free dining was about $20 less expensive per night for those ten and older, the room rate deals were often better. The combination of those two factors could add on the order of $75/night more to the spread between the two offers.

But those days are gone…

So those are my “three things you need to know about free dining.”  What do you think people need to know?

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