The Revised 2014 Crowd Calendar and Week Rankings are Out!
By Dave Shute
Over the weekend, I finished up and posted the revised–and, barring typos–final versions of the 2014 Disney World Crowd Calendar and 2014 Weeks to Visit Ranked in Order.
Material like this is the most popular stuff on this site.
I publish initial forecasts about 15 months before the respective year begins, and then, with Disney’s final price seasons and my analysis of public school calendars in hand, revise it the summer before.
I’ll be publishing more on how specific parts of each were built over the coming weeks, but for now, the only big change was downgrading the week beginning March 29, 2014, which I formerly had as a “recommended week.”
This week will be more crowded than I had thought in the draft material–I had had it as 3/low, it’s now 5/moderate-minus–and in turn its week ranking has shifted from 14th best of the year to 17th best of the year. While it’ll still be an OK week, this change is enough to knock it out of the “recommended weeks.”
Besides the details promised above, still left to do this summer are the 2014 “Cheat Sheet” and “Week Picker.” (See this and this for the 2013 equivalents.) And after that I’ll start working on the 2015 forecasts!!
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14 comments
Your site is positively fabulous. My wife and I are seasoned Disney veterans. I think I got information of park touring plans off your site last year. (Ex: which rides/shows/parks are busiest each day of the week) Is that correct? If so where are they? I can’t seem to find them.
Thanks again for all your hard work in keeping your site current. It must be overwhelming at times.
Don S
Hey Don, thanks! On your specific question…If I understand it correctly, I don’t have that, but can direct you a couple of places that do (which are probably what you are recalling).
Tell me a little more specifically what you are looking for–and for what dates–and I’ll point you in the right direction!
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Dave,
Well of course we booked for the week of 3/29. What are you basing the revision on? School calendars? It sounds like you are saying this week would still be okay but not as good as previously thought, is that accurate? Should we back off entirely and find another week? We are traveling with 2 other families and we all agreed on this week so switching would be difficult. Everyone but my family are first timers and I don’t want to guide them into an absolute storm.
Thanks!
Joe, yes, having analyzed the calendars in early July, more kids are on break that week than I had thought would be. I’ll be publishing the details soon, but if you can’t move your date it’ll be OK; if you can move them, the week after will be better.
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Hi, Dave. Thank you for compiling all this great information! I’m curious as to why the crowd levels for September are expected to be higher in 2014 than in past years. Any insight?
Hi Elizabeth! I’ll be going into this in more detail later, but September–and in particular the week of the 13th–is South American spring break. The FIFA world cup will be in Brazil in the summer of 14, and this will hold SA soccer-mad people people in place in the summer and shift their Disney trips to September… hence I bumped up the September crowds more than usual. They are all still in the “low” category.
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Hi Dave, We are planning a visit to DisneyWorld Feb 25th-Mar 1st. That looks like a low crowd level on your crowd calendar but I have noticed several hotels are booked up inclding the Dolphin hotel. Maybe there are a lot of conventions during this time. I
m just wondering if that will affect crowd levels in the parks? We orginally were going to come the 1st week of March but heard Mardi Gras can cause higher crowd levels.
Joyce you should be fine! There’s a huge convention at the Orange County Convention Center through the 27th. That’s made hotel rooms tight throughout the county, but the parks should be just fine!
Hi Dave,
We just visited disney last year in December 10th week and we loved the weather but was a little crowded for the holiday stuff. This year we are considering going week of sept 13th but are concerned about the rain/heat? We are hoping to get the free dining offer. Should we risk going in sept or move our trip to 11/29? We are flexible with dates. Thank you!
Arshi, I’d wait a week or so. September free dining might be announced quite soon.
Hi Dave – If they DO announce September free dining, does it typically include october too? or that has been offered separately AFTER the sept. FD in the past? I know none of it is guaranteed but i find it odd of they did a Sept Only Free dinging, and then a month or so later, announced an Oct free dining… why not just announce it all at once? thanks
Michelle, before the recession the only free dining deal was September. During the recession and recovery Disney threw every discount it could think of out, and free dining was available multiple dates.
But the September release was always its own thing, as Disney knew that eventually it’d be cutting everything else back. For the last couple of years free dining has disappeared except for September and a few weeks in the fall. Separating the releases creates a lot of current and future flexibility for Disney.
We are planning a trip for November 10-16 2014. We normally go in September but want to see the Christmas decorations. I have been comparing crowd calendars and they either read low (2-3) or moderate (5-6). What’s causing the difference? I hear jersey week and veterans day are pushing the numbers up. Any insight on this? Im considering moving my trip if the numbers will be 5-6. Thanks!
Brandie, part of the issue is that every site defines “3” differently, and part is that crowd forecasters simply disagree on Veterans Day. I’m in the “it doesn’t matter” camp. Even many public schools don’t get Veterans Day off; most private-sectors parents don’t get it off, and it’s not a 3 day weekend. So I see it as having little effect and think that the parks will be just fine from the 9th on…
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