Disney World Crowds in 2013: Christmas/New Years Crowds 2012/2013
DISNEY WORLD CROWDS FROM LATER DECEMBER 2012 TO EARLY JANUARY 2013
Disney World usually sees its highest crowds and prices of the year in the later third of December and the beginning of January, in the week that includes Christmas, and the next week that includes New Year’s Eve.
This is for a pretty basic reason: kids are out of school these weeks.
However, not every school district has the same break schedule.
In 2012/2013, many more kids are out Christmas week than New Year’s week, but there’s enough on break New Year’s week to still crowd the parks…
SCHOOL BREAKS AND DISNEY WORLD CROWDS
There’s three archetype districts:
- Long breakers–districts that take at least 2 full weeks (and three weekends) off
- Short breakers–districts that take off as close to only December 25 to January 1 as they can
- Shorter breakers–districts that start with a December 25 to January 1 mindset, but are happy to extend the break if they reasonably can, especially to avoid one or two day school weeks before the 25th or after the 1st
In 2012, a Tuesday Christmas, and the patterning of school breaks around it, will make it easy for many families to head to Walt Disney World either week. However, the preponderance of kids will be off Christmas week, so that week will be much worse.
ACTUAL 2012-2013 CHRISTMAS SEASON SCHOOL BREAKS
The chart to the right illuminates this.
It’s based on data from a weighted sample including more than 180 of the largest relevant US public school districts.
(Click it to enlarge it; when it opens, click it again to enlarge it more.)
You can see that while a lot of kids start their break earlier, breaks start really building the 20th and 21st, and by Saturday 12/22, everyone is off.
At the simplest level, what this means is that about half of kids can only go to Disney World Christmas week, and half can go either Christmas or New Years week.
Given this, if the half that can go either week is randomly distributed between the two possible weeks, then 3 times as many kids will be at Disney World Christmas week than New Years week.
As a result, I’m classing Christmas week 2012 as 11/highest crowds, and New Years week 2013 as 9/high crowds. New Years week will start enormously crowded, then slow down a bit after the 1st.
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10 comments
These are great predictions Dave! Perfect timing with the new free dining promotion!
Thanks, Allison!
Hi! Your site has been invaluable! I am having a little trouble with the crown calendars ~ user error I am sure. Originally, we were planning on Disney the week of 12/8/12 through the 12/15/12. However, I had difficulty with hotel arrangements as there seems to be conferences in town on that Mon. and Tues.. We changed the week to 12/12/12 through 12/19/12. Crowds are most important on our agenda. Will this slight change make a difference as far as crowds? If we can only do Disney for 4 days, would you recommend the first 4 days of this week? Thanks for your help!! Coleen Campi
Hi Coleen, and thanks for the kind words!
My crowd calendars don’t do days–just weeks, starting Saturdays…so no user error!
Crowds will be fine the 12th through the 18th, and will begin to pick up a bit the 19th. Sat-Mon are the busiest times, so I would pick among your various Tues-Fri over your dates for your WDW days…avoid parks on days when they have morning Extra Magic Hours, and MK will be least busy the days it closes at 7p….
6 adults and 3 young children planning a wdw trip mid July 2013. Are there any days to avoid at the parks, such as conferences and such. Thanks
Hi Sandra!
Overall, July is the most crowded month at Disney World. See this: http://yourfirstvisit.net/2012/12/19/july-2013-walt-disney-world/
The worst weeks is the 4th of July week, and weekends are always busier than weekdays, but since every kid is off that month crowds are high pretty much all month long. You don’t see many conferences in Orlando in July because of the weather…
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Dave,
We will be staying at OKW from Feb 9 – 15, 2013. We were assuming after the weekend of the 9th & 10th the crowd level should drop down until the 14th & 15th. Any professional words of wisdom here ? P.S. great site. We are DVC newbies and now make the annual migration to Disney every Mardi Gras; well except when it falls during President’s Day & Spring Breaks.
Hi Kenneth, I think that’s exactly right!
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Hello, we just booked a WDW trip for Nov 17, 2013. Do you think it will be crowded at that time? And will the weather still be warm??? Thanks
Hi, I have crowds ranked that week as 3/low. See this: http://yourfirstvisit.net/2011/09/12/disney-world-crowds-in-2013/
Weather in November is all over the place, and can be cold, cool, warm or hot–see this http://yourfirstvisit.net/planning-your-first-family-trip/when-to-go/next-best-dates/weather-and-when-to-go/high-temperatures-year-round/
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